Saturday, November 21, 2009

The Fatal Flaw in Housing Bailout Plans

The CNN Money headline states Feds want "prudent workout plan" for borrowers.
U.S. banking regulators urged lenders Tuesday to help distressed borrowers unable to make mortgage payments and to offer possible incentives to move homeowners to lower-cost loans.

The Federal Reserve and other agencies said they may relax some regulatory penalties for financial institutions that pursue reasonable workout plans with borrowers. Lenders may also receive favorable consideration under the Community Reinvestment Act, the regulators said in a statement.

"The agencies want to remind their institutions that existing regulatory guidance and accounting standards do not require immediate foreclosure on homes when borrowers fall behind on payments," they said.

U.S. banking regulators and lawmakers are exploring ways to help millions of borrowers with poor credit history who took out adjustable rate mortgages that start with low introductory monthly payments and then dramatically increase after the first two or three years.

The regulatory agencies said a prudent workout plan is in the long-term interest of both the financial institutions and borrowers and urged lenders to work with consumer groups to help borrowers avoid predatory foreclosure rescue scams.
Let"s be realistic here. This has nothing to do with helping out distressed borrowers. This has everything to do with helping out lenders who are stuck in loans with increasing chances of default.

The prudent thing to do would be to stop risky lending practices cold. The way to do that would be to punish irresponsible lenders and borrowers both. Instead the Fed is attempting to prop up asset prices by the carrot and stick method of relaxing regulatory penalties for misbehavin".

$1 billion rescue of subprime loans set

Neighborhood Assistance Corp. is announcing a $1 billion rescue of subprime loans.
A Boston-based national community advocacy group on Wednesday announced a $1 billion campaign to rescue predatory loan victims by refinancing their mortgages, as a new U.S. Senate report said such foreclosure prevention efforts are beneficial to communities.

Using its capacity as a nonprofit mortgage broker, Neighborhood Assistance Corp. of America will act as an agent for Citigroup and Bank of America Corp., the two biggest U.S. banks. The group will approve new loans for �subprime� borrowers � those with spotty credit � who are in danger of losing homes to foreclosure.

NACA will counsel the struggling borrowers, process loan applications and underwrite the loans, which the banks will fund before likely selling them to Wall Street investors in the form of securities and bonds. The 30- year loans will carry a fixed interest rate one point below the prime rate, putting it currently at 5.5 percent. There are no fees, and the banks pay all the closing costs.

�We have created a new program that is going to be out there to really save the thousands of people who are at risk of losing their home, just in the Buffalo area not to mention nationwide,� said NACA CEO Bruce Marks in an interview.

Using data from First American LoanPerformance, the report also looked at the percentage of subprime loans that were at least 60 days late in payments. Buffalo�s rate of 13 percent was the highest among New York�s large cities, though well below Cleveland at 24.1 percent. The national average is 12.4 percent.

�We need to redouble efforts to protect American families and communities who are at the losing end of this mess,� Schumer said in a press release. �The subprime mortgage meltdown has economic consequences that will ripple through our communities unless we act.

�It�s always the best deal out there,� Marks said. �Everybody would love to have a NACA loan, but we are prioritizing. The people who have a predatory loan, those are the people that we are going to assist.�
Ah yes, Priorities

"We are prioritizing. The people who have a predatory loan, those are the people that we are going to assist."

It"s a brilliant plan. Let"s reward the totally inept with 5.5% loans. Let"s make everyone wish they got trapped in loans they could not afford. But what happens when this escalates from subprime to Alt-A to prime? Are we going to bail out everyone? Who is it we are bailing out anyway: the homeowner or the predatory lender? A better question is: Are we bailing out anyone at all or just padding the pockets of a new set of lenders? Questions, questions, questions.

By the way, who exactly are those 5.5% subprime loans going to be sold to? I suppose when push comes to shove the government could always pad another pocket and guarantee them.

"The report said foreclosure prevention efforts pay off, since every new foreclosure can cost up to $80,000 including the impact on homeowners, lenders, neighbors and local governments. By contrast, foreclosure prevention programs cost only about $3,300 per household".

Hells bells, why not just give everyone $3,300 and be done with it? To think we could have prevented this subprime blowup for a measly $3,300 per and we did not do it. Shame on us.

The Ohio Rescue Plan

On April 5th Reuters reported Ohio mortgage bailout plan gets off to slow start.
Struggling with one of the highest foreclosure rates in America, Ohio rolled out a rescue program for struggling home owners this week. Lenders have been lined up, a Web site developed and phone lines opened.

Trouble is, no one can quite figure out how to tell desperate homeowners about it -- and lenders say the ones who have heard about it may be too far gone to help.

"Even though it has been in the newspapers, it"s really one of those referral type of things that gets around by word of mouth," said Patricia Kuether, a loan officer at Sibcy Cline Mortgage Services in Cincinnati. "We haven"t experienced any phone calls asking about it yet."

The state-sponsored program, run by the Ohio Housing Finance Agency, is designed to refinance borrowers facing rising payments and looming foreclosure into a 30-year fixed-rate loan with a 6.75 percent interest rate. That"s a huge discount for subprime borrowers who have seen rates rise to as much as 10 percent to 12 percent in recent months.

Housing experts estimate some 1.5 million U.S. homes will be foreclosed in 2007 as interest rates rise and borrowers fall behind on their payments.

Ohio hopes the program will help about 1,000 home owners struggling to keep up with rising interest rates -- if only they can get the word out.

"When we opened our phone lines on Monday morning, we received a lot of phone calls," said Rita Parise, director of programs at OHFA.

"But unfortunately we found that a lot of those people don"t have Internet access, so it"s a matter of walking them through the process to find lenders and nonprofit counselors in their community who can help."

Ohio had the highest rate of foreclosure in 2006. Nearly 7,500 households -- or one out of every 640 -- registered a foreclosure filing in February, nearly 30 percent above the national average, according to foreclosure tracking service RealtyTrac.

Lenders said the most desperate of borrowers also may not qualify for the program. There are minimum credit requirements, and applicants must have enough income and only a certain amount of debt to be accepted. All will have to undergo four hours of face-to-face financial counseling.

"Unfortunately, I think some of the people who are going to be interested in it, they are so close to foreclosure it"s not going to work for them," said Beverly Pineault, a loan officer at Humphries Mortgage in Cincinnati.

"We"ve had a couple of phone calls, maybe three phone calls about it," she said. None look like they can yet qualify for the loan. "Once someone starts spiraling down financially, they get behind on their house payments, their credit scores drop, so it may be too late."
Note that the program can"t reach the people they want to help because many of them do not have internet access. Is that funny or is that sad? Whatever it is, let"s do the math. Ohio hopes to help 1,000 homeowners through this program. Now assume that every state came up with a similar program and lets assume each state saves 1,000 foreclosures. That"s 50,000 total out of an expected 1.5 million foreclosures.

Washington Mutual announces $2B program to help subprime borrowers

In contrast to the piddly $100 million Ohio bailout program, Washington Mutual announced a $2B program to help subprime borrowers.
In the $2 billion program, the Seattle-based bank said subprime borrowers who are current with their existing loans but face payment increases may apply for "new discounted fixed-rate loans or other mortgage products," such as a 30-year fixed-rate subprime loan with the interest rate discounted by 50 basis points.

Washington Mutual also said it will offer "prime mortgage product options for borrowers who qualify."
The reason Wa-Mu is doing this is simple: Steve Rotella, Washington Mutual"s president and chief operating officer, said there was "turmoil in the subprime sector," and told shareholders that Washington Mutual"s subprime segment lost $164 million in the first quarter.

In other words this is an act of desperation by Wa-Mu hoping to cut further losses.

Freddie Mac ups the ante to $20 billion

Upping the ante even further is a Freddie Mac promise to buy $20 billion in subprime mortgages.
Freddie Mac says it will buy $20 billion in mortgages in a bid to clean up the looming mess in the so-called subprime lending business. The big government-sponsored mortgage company says that starting this summer, it will buy "fixed-rate and hybrid ARM products that will provide lenders with more choices to offer subprime borrowers."

Freddie, which made the announcement on a day when it appeared before Congress to explain its role in the controversy, says its new products "will limit payment shock by offering reduced adjustable rate margins; longer fixed-rate terms; and longer reset periods."
This will be interesting. The Fed wants to rein in Fannie and Freddie but they are bound and determined to expand business. This is another disaster in the works. Fannie and Freddie bonds trade as if there is a government guarantee even though there is none.

The Washington Post is also talking about Freddie Mac and Refinancing Loans.
Freddie Mac, one of the nation"s largest mortgage investors, plans to buy about $20 billion worth of mortgages that would primarily refinance the loans of people in danger of losing their homes.

The McLean company is targeting the loans of subprime borrowers, who typically have blemished credit records or other factors that make them risky to lenders. Since the housing market softened, many such borrowers have missed payments and defaulted at record rates in parts of the country.

Richard F. Syron, Freddie Mac"s chief executive, announced his company"s plan at a Capitol Hill briefing yesterday. The goal is to buy fixed and adjustable-rate mortgages with more affordable terms, starting midsummer, he said.

The idea is that if more troubled borrowers could refinance their homes, they would not lose them, and if investors such as Freddie Mac are willing to buy these loans, lenders would be willing to make them.

Freddie Mac is allocating money to this troubled sector "because it"s needed and because, quite honestly, it"s a good business opportunity," Syron said in an interview. Considering that the average mortgage is $150,000, the $20 billion Freddie Mac has allocated would cover about 130,000 mortgages, he said.

Freddie Mac has not decided exactly what terms it will set for the loans it will buy. Fannie Mae"s program, HomeStay, would allow lenders to refinance without having to wait until the borrowers clear unpaid bills on their credit reports. It also would stretch the loan term to a maximum of 40 years from the current 30-year limit. Fannie Mae has not placed a dollar amount on how many such loans it would buy.

Freddie Mac plans to keep the loans affected by yesterday"s announcement in its portfolio, Syron said. That way, it can launch the program quickly and alter loan terms if necessary, which is difficult to do if the loans are sold to investors.

The loans Freddie Mac buys under this program would not be limited to refinancing, though refinancing is the initial focus now that millions of people have adjustable-rate mortgages with low teaser rates that will soon spike.
The loans under the program would not be limited to refinancing. Why not? After all isn"t that what the program is for?

Wendy on The Market Traders is skeptical.
Quite honestly, if it was a good business opportunity, real banks, not government-sponsored organizations, would be offering it.

Many subprime mortgages have prepayment penalties of up to 6 months. With home prices stable or dropping, how will the new Freddy mortgages cover the transaction costs of refinancing?

If Freddy "cherry picks" only those mortgages that actually make sense to refinance, it will only be a fraction of the market. Will the government mandate a non-discrimination policy, and force them to take even bad mortgages (after all, if the people could pay, they wouldn"t be in default)?

Taxpayer funded bailouts always distort the market.

Wendy
I"m right with you on this Wendy. This is a slippery slope we are on and it has nothing really to do with bailing out homeowners. For Fannie and Freddie it is a way to get Congress off their backs and start expanding again regardless of risk. For Wa-Mu it is an act of desperation. And it certainly is not a "good business opportunity" for anyone except perhaps someone with a government guarantee or government funds. Regardless, every one of these plans will fail because they all have a fatal flaw.

The Fatal Flaw in Bailout Plans

The flaw is these programs are all designed to keep people in their homes regardless of the value of those homes.

Who wants to be "bailed out" if it means owing $350,000 on a mortgage when their house is only worth $175,000? The last thing a rational borrower needs or wants is that kind of bailout. Essentially what is being offered is a sucker play to stop people from handing over the keys and walking away. It won"t work.

Some might argue that it was irrationality that led to absurd prices in the first place so "why expect rationality now?" The answer is expectations are lower and few expect a return to madness any time soon. In short: Housing psychology has changed. The bottom will be formed when no one expects prices to rise again. Look at Japan. This can be many years from now.

A second reason is the slowing economy itself. Eventually the slowing economy will take a toll. The problems are already spreading beyond subprime into Alt-A. Eventually it will spread into prime. Finally, capital spending is slowing dramatically and with that will come rising unemployment.
More people will have a harder time making payments, and not just on subprime loans either.

The refusal to let this play out, first by Greenspan in slashing rates to 1%, now by Congress, and soon again by the Fed, all attempting to contain the uncontainable has a recent parallel. But no one sees it. Hidden in the shadows o
f rising commodity prices, the refusal to write off bad loans is following in the exact same footsteps as Japan.

Mike Shedlock / Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Fed Admits that Tight Lending and Unemployment May Slow Recovery


I have repeatedly said that the banks won"t significantly increase their lending to individuals and small businesses until the economy stabilizes, no matter how much money the government gives them.

I have repeatedly said that the whole concept of a "jobless recovery" given the economic fundamentals we have currently is nonsense, and that the rising tide of unemployment will keep the economy on the ropes for some time.

Now, as Bloomberg points out, the Fed may finally be grudgingly admitting as much:

The Federal Open Market Committee, at the conclusion tomorrow of a two-day meeting, will probably maintain its assessment that �tight� bank credit is impeding growth, said economists including former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley. Lending contracted for five straight weeks through Sept. 9, a drop that in part reflects Fed orders to banks to raise more capital and toughen lending standards, analysts say.

A failure to restore the flow of bank credit carries the risk that the economic recovery will be slower than the Fed anticipates, or even that the U.S. lapses into another recession, economists say...

�The financial system is still far from healthy and tight credit is likely to put a damper on growth for some time to come� [San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said in a Sept. 14 speech].

The Fed has taken other steps to make sure banks avoid riskier loans. In July 2008, it tightened mortgage rules by requiring lenders to determine a borrower�s ability to repay and barring other practices that led to the collapse of the housing market.

Minimum regulatory-capital requirements may change as officials in the U.S. and abroad craft new financial rules. Consumers are less credit-worthy as the job market deteriorates and after a record loss of wealth from plunging share prices and real estate values.

Rising unemployment will slow the pace of the recovery, Bernanke said on Sept. 15.

Whether the Fed"s policy of requiring more capital is good or bad is beyond the scope of this essay.


Arab media judge Mitchell tour

When the US envoy to the Middle East returned to Washington empty-handed, the Arab press asked why he had failed to secure a compromise deal for renewed peace talks.
But rather than pointing a finger at George Mitchell, editorials for the most part blamed Israel - and Netanyahu in particular.
A Fatah-owned Palestinian paper, Al Quds, said that "as planned" by [Israeli PM] Netanyahu, the two men"s talks had ended in deadlock. Israel had remained "adamant in its desire to steal land, expand settlements and judaize Jerusalem".
The newspaper called on Washington and Brussels to understand Israel was seeking to destroy any peace process.
But the daily also expressed its doubt about a Palestinian policy focus of putting pre-conditions on talks - such as a complete halt to illegal settlement expansion in the West Bank. "This gave Israel more time to impose its plans and evade the requirements of just and comprehensive peace."
In a commentary printed by Al Ayyam, another privately owned pro-Fatah newspaper, pessimism about the chances for a breakthrough were also voiced.
It said the Obama administration was "too weak" to sacrifice the US strategic alliance with Israel for the sake of stopping settlement activity as this would effectively mean breaking apart Netanyahu"s coalition government.
Meanwhile, the Gaza daily Filastin said the meeting between [Palestinian President Mahmud] Abbas and [Hamas political leader Khaled] Meshaal would achieve more than of any of Mitchell"s efforts to bring together Abbas and Netanyahu.
A second commentary condemned Mitchell for not visiting Gaza or talking to Hamas, accusing him of "going to the wrong addresses and knocking on the wrong doors". LinkHere

Flint"s Final Death Rattle?

The Detroit News is writing about The fall of Flint.
FLINT -- Thirty years ago, it was the home of 14,000 workers, a sprawling complex of factories that churned out millions of auto parts a day for General Motors Corp.
But the once-mighty Flint East plant is now a shell of its former self, and a leading candidate for closure in the restructuring of GM"s bankrupt spinoff, Delphi Corp.
Its likely demise speaks volumes about GM"s mistakes, the globalization of auto parts manufacturing and the tortured relationship between the world"s biggest automaker and the United Auto Workers. Now down to 2,800 workers, Flint East is a dinosaur in the rapidly changing auto industry, a source of spark plugs and air filters made cheaper in the low-wage economies of China, India and Mexico.

GM"s latest downsizing will cost Flint an engine plant and another 800 jobs on top of the Delphi losses. "This is something that has been going on since the 1970s," said Northeastern University sociology professor Barry Bluestone, whose father once headed the UAW"s GM division. "This is just kind of the final death rattle."

No demand for parts


Where Flint East once made 1.2 million spark plugs a day, the plant now turns out one-tenth of that volume. And GM has already told labor leaders at the plant that the company will cease orders for any of its spark plugs by next year.

Delphi Chairman Robert S. "Steve" Miller is characteristically blunt about the need to eliminate the spark plug operations. "We can"t make any more spark plugs," Miller said in a recent interview. "You can put 1,000 of them in a box and ship them out of China. Parts like that are going to be made in low-wage countries, and there"s nothing we can do about it."

"It"s not that we can"t build good products at a competitive price," said Art Reyes, vice president of UAW Local 651, which represents workers at Flint East. "It"s that we"re not allowed to."

Under Delphi"s latest wage proposal, factory workers would earn around $12 per hour, down from the current average of $27 per hour.

If the UAW and other unions do not agree to wage cuts by a Jan. 20 deadline, Miller has said he will ask the court to reject its labor contracts -- a move that could prompt a strike at Delphi.

Situation demands changes

The stark decline is impossible to ignore, even for GM Chairman Rick Wagoner.
"If you look back (to) when Flint has the highest incomes per capita of any city in the country if nothing else you say, "Wow, that"s a lesson for us," " Wagoner told the News. "If you do not adapt, man, the cost is high."

But did Flint East fail to adapt, or were the forces of change in the auto industry too powerful to overcome? Not only have many of its parts been outsourced overseas, but the GM vehicles that use those parts also aren"t selling.

"What makes it so poignant is it isn"t as though the auto industry in America is in decline," said Bluestone, the sociology professor. "It"s actually quite vibrant if you"re Toyota, Honda, BMW or Mercedes, but not if you"re GM or Ford."

"It costs us $2.05 to make a spark plug, and we"ve been selling them to GM for $1.70," said Russ Reynolds, president of UAW Local 651. "But they can make them in India and Japan and China for $1.05, and we just can"t compete with that."

Reyes said that the plant"s management and union local went as far as to offer GM spark plugs for free for its new vehicles, just so Flint East could continue to supply the automaker in the aftermarket.

"They turned it down," Reyes said. "They"re just killing us."

The bottom line is just as painful for Flint East"s other products, such as instrument clusters, air meters and filtration systems. According to Delphi"s Northstar plan, the company wants to dump those businesses -- identified as "losers" -- entirely.

"This is devastating people"s lives," said former UAW President Douglas Fraser. "This is not a layoff. It"s the end of a life. There is a feeling of abandonment."

And with the feeling of abandonment comes a wellspring of anger directed at Miller and GM"s leadership. That rage could lead to strategic strikes at Delphi that would not only cripple GM"s vehicle production, but also affect other automotive customers.

"We"re going to go down fighting," vowed Roth, the regional UAW leader.

A similar sentiment can be heard in conversations across the city, as workers and residents frame the Delphi struggle as a fight not just for jobs, but for the future of the American middle class.

At the Dec. 2 news conference announcing the petition, union leaders appeared at a podium under banners that read "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs" and "America First."

"We need to take our country back," said Local 651"s Reynolds, choking back tears. "We need to take our government back. If we wait until tomorrow, it may be too late."

Another union official recalled his military service, demanding the same loyalty from the U.S. government in saving the domestic auto industry from ruin.

But while many union leaders and workers are eager to take on Miller and Delphi, others are tired of fighting a battle they know they can"t win.

"There are a lot of people who are just done talking about it," said Davidson, the bartender at Jammins, which sits across the street from Flint East. "Talking about it only causes more depression and anger. "I think people are giving up," she said. "That"s the attitude now."
There is a lot to discuss in that article, so let"s give it a try.

Yes, it is about "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs" and the situation is not pretty. Unfortunately it is spreading quickly to other sectors. I am quite fearful of "America First" however. The last thing the country (or world) needs is for protectionist legislation like Smoot-Hawley. It did not work in the 30"s and it is far less likely to work now. The US is simply too addicted to cheap parts and labor from China and India.

Delphi CEO miller said "You can put 1,000 of them in a box and ship them out of China. Parts like that are going to be made in low-wage countries, and there"s nothing we can do about it."

Sadly, that is the case. The FED and the government attempting to do something about the inevitable is not doing anyone a favor in the long run. Greenspan"s refusal to take his medicine in 2002, and 1997, and preventing the bubble in the first place is going to cause a far far bigger problem "Down the Road".

Mish News Flash: "Down the Road" has now arrived.

"If you look back (to) when Flint has the highest incomes per capita of any city in the country if nothing else you say, "Wow, that"s a lesson for us," " Wagoner told the News. "If you do not adapt, man, the cost is high."

Mish question for Wagoner: Exactly what are you doing to "adapt"? All I see you doing is cutting 30,000 jobs while ramping up production of SUVs that no one is going to be able to afford.

"It"s not that we can"t build good products at a competitive price," said Art Reyes, vice president of UAW Local 651, which represents workers at Flint East. "It"s that we"re not allowed to."

That seems to be the prevailing attitude. Unfortunately it is also a lie. The simple fact of the matter is that the US can not build good products at a competitive price when wages in India and China are 40-90% less than the US depending on what study you want to believe. It is simply impossible to overcome that differential.

I find this interesting so there must be another side to the story I am missing: Reyes said that the plant"s management and union local went as far as to offer GM spark plugs for free for its new vehicles, just so Flint East could continue to supply the automaker in the aftermarket. "They turned it down," Reyes said. GM does not want free parts? Why?

I find this thought interesting as well. "What makes it so poignant is it isn"t as though the auto industry in America is in decline," said Bluestone, the sociology professor. "It"s actually quite vibrant if you"re Toyota, Honda, BMW or Mercedes, but not if you"re GM or Ford."

Actually I think the time is at hand for ALL car makers to take a hit, a huge hit. I fail to see how there can be any pent up demand for vehicles of any kind. I fully expect Toyota, Honda, etc etc etc to start sharing in the pain. However, because of cost differentials, that pain will not be spread equally. The high cost producers (GM and Ford) will bear the brunt of it. The problem is called overcapacity and in that situation, high cost producers will get decimated.

Let"s now turn our attention to this idea: "We"re going to go down fighting," vowed Roth, the regional UAW leader.If indeed Delphi "goes down fighting", it will hasten the demise of GM. Quite simply there is no way shape or form that GM can possibly weather a parts supply disruption that would stop vehicle production cold while GM has contract obligations to pay its workers 90% of their salary if they are laid off. If Delphi strikes and it is prolonged, GM will likely be bankrupt within 4 months. Hmmm. Would Bush step in like Reagan did with Air Traffic Controllers? Even if so, would it be too late or even matter at all?

Finally lets turn our attention to "giving up". "There are a lot of people who are just done talking about it," said Davidson, the bartender at Jammins, which sits across the street from Flint East. "Talking about it only causes more depression and anger. "I think people are giving up," she said. "That"s the attitude now."

It is depressing that US corporations and the US government both can not see the long term damage they are doing. It is now too late, and the debt bubbles are too huge, and the transfer of wealth (manufacturing capacity) is too great to do anything about. The jobs situation is now rapidly spreading to banking and other industries. I will be talking more about that in "Tipping Point on Jobs" this Wednesday on a HoweStreet podcast. Be sure and listen in.

Mish Bottom Line:

No one is willing to admit the truth. The truth is that US spending is on borrowed time, living well beyond its means, and corporations as well as government agencies have made promises to retirees that simply can not be met. That means a lower standard of living, falling asset prices, and dare say it: deflation.

The more $Ben Bernanke chooses to fight the problem, the better it will be for gold.

Mike Shedlock / Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Iran Plays Hardball

The daily Times and The Hindu are both reporting that Iran is scrapping a $21b gas deal with India. Following are some snips:
Iran has informed India that the five-million-tonne a year liquefied natural gas (LNG) export deal, with deliveries scheduled to begin in 2009 for a 25-year period, is off. This was conveyed to Indian officials in Vienna soon after the anti-Iran vote cast on Saturday by New Delhi at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) governing board meeting.

Under a deal signed in June, India planned to import five million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually for 25 years with deliveries from Iran starting in 2009. Iran�s decision to cancel the deal was conveyed to India�s permanent representative, Sheelkant Sharma, at the IAEA by Iran�s ambassador in Vienna, The Hindu reported.

It followed India�s decision to join the US, Britain, France, Germany and other nations in backing a resolution calling on the agency to consider reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for not complying with the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT). The motion states that Iran is in �non-compliance� with the NPT, mainly for hiding sensitive atomic activities, and is an automatic trigger for taking the matter to the Security Council. Referral would come only after a report by IAEA chief Mohammed El Baradei, expected in November.

Sharma wrote to the Prime Minister�s Office on September 24 that his Iranian counterpart had told him the LNG deal, signed between the two sides in June, was off. The Iranian Ambassador in Vienna came up to Sharma after India�s vote and conveyed a message from Ali Larijani, Iran�s top nuclear negotiator, that Tehran was no longer willing to go ahead with the $21 billion deal, added the report.

With this, India"s energy security has suffered a major blow. The agreement was considered a good deal for India; in the variable component of the price formula the Brent price of crude was capped at $31 a barrel.
Perhaps I take some heat for this but I applaud Iran"s decision. It"s high time countries step up to the plate and do what is best for them rather than what the US thinks is best for everybody. Iran has the same right to nuclear energy as does India, Pakistan, Europe, and the US. Yes there are worries that Iran might not use nuclear facilities for peaceful purposes. Then again, how can anyone possibly blame Iran for wanting to protect itself from unwarranted military aggression from the US? If the US did not invade Iraq and threaten Iran, would Iran feel so threatened? Are threats from Bush driving Iran towards nuclear weapons? I think so. Whether on purpose or not, US policies are hardly a stabilizing factor for either terrorism or preventing nuclear weapons proliferation.

On August 14, The Sunday Times reported Britain keeps distance from talk of strike on Iran.
Foreign secretary Jack Straw sought to distance Britain yesterday from comments by President George W Bush that he would not rule out a military strike against Iran.

Bush raised the temperature by giving an interview to Israeli television from his ranch in Crawford, Texas. Asked if he would consider force, he replied: "All options are on the table." He added: "The use of force is the last option for any president and you know we�ve used force in the recent past to secure our country."

The Foreign Office reacted swiftly. "Our position is clear and has been made very, very clear by the foreign secretary," a spokesman said. "We do not think there are any circumstances where military action would be justified against Iran. It does not form part of British foreign policy."

"Iran has all the cards," said one official close to the talks. "It�s going to be embarrassing for the Brits."

Russia has a civilian nuclear contract with Iran worth �500m while China is increasingly reliant on Iranian oil and gas. Last October Sinopec, the Chinese state oil company, signed a �39 billion deal giving it a 51% stake in Yadavaran, Iran�s largest onshore oilfield.
It does indeed appear that Iran is holding all the cards. The US is bogged down in Iraq, UK tolerance for more military action is non-existent, and US support for stupidity in Iraq is plunging as fast as President Bush is in the polls. On the other hand, one simply can not rule out more insanity from this administration.

With that backdrop, Iran stepped up to the plate and told India where to go. Somehow I have a feeling that China will be the beneficiary of this ball game. In the meantime, that was one hell of a warning that Iran issued to countries regarding its rights to use nuclear energy in a peaceful manner. It will be interesting to watch the fallout over this. I expect to see a United States increasing isolated from world politics as a result.

India just lost a $21 Billion oil and gas project by being stupid. Let"s see if anyone else is dumb enough to follow suit.

Mike Shedlock / Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Randi Wins!!!!!The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals RULES for Randy in CACI v Rhodes

After 3 long years The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals RULES for me in CACI v Rhodes and condemns torture!
If you read this you will be stunned and proud to know the Justice System still works sometimes. Sadly, I�m totally convinced that it only works sometimes IF YOU HAVE MONEY.
Link to Ruling

How Voter Fury Stopped The Bailout

Inquiring minds are considering the Wall Street Journal article How Voter Fury Stopped Bailout
Left-Right Combo By Opponents Put Plan on the Ropes.

The defeat in Congress of a proposed $700 billion economic-rescue package followed an intense outpouring of voter anger, fanned by politicians, interest groups and media on the left and right, that overwhelmed calls from the president and top lawmakers to pass the deal.

Voters opposed to the deal deluged Capitol Hill with letters, emails, phone calls and faxes over the past week. Some 23,000 signatures were collected over two days by Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Independent, calling for a five-year, 10% surtax on the wealthiest Americans to help fund the bailout. Some prominent conservatives and bloggers criticized the deal as an unwarranted intervention in the free market.

On his Web site in recent days, Rep. Issa has posted letters and emails from some of the more than 2,000 constituents he said had contacted him about the proposal, including one from "Greg" in Temecula, Calif., who called the proposal "poorly thought out and rushed to the floor."

"I am 45 and a husband and father of 4. I am outraged and appalled at the arrogance of my President and the lack of regard for what is right," the message said.

Among prominent conservatives who publicly assailed the administration"s proposal in recent days was former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich. But Mr. Gingrich said in a statement posted on his Web site Monday that he would "reluctantly and sadly" vote for the proposal if he were still in office.

"This bill is not the best proposal for solving the housing crisis. It is not even a good proposal for solving the crisis," the statement said. "However, it is the only proposal Secretary [Henry] Paulson would support, and his support was essential in this setting."

Mr. Gingrich then capped his tepid endorsement with a call for Mr. Paulson"s resignation, saying that "having a former chairman of Goldman Sachs preside over disbursing hundreds of billions of dollars to Wall Street is a terrible concept and inevitably will lead to crony capitalism and the appearance of -- if not the actual existence of -- corruption."

The proposal"s defeat was also cheered on by a number of blogs that in recent days have posted links to lawmakers" telephone and fax numbers and urged citizens to oppose the plan. They included stopthehousingbailout.com, a Web site organized by a 37-year-old Los Angeles attorney named Morgan Ward Doran, and globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com, run by Mike Shedlock, an investment adviser at SitkaPacific Capital Management. Mr. Shedlock said in an interview Monday that his site had received 1.7 million page hits this month, which he said was half a million more than normal.

On his Web site, Mr. Shedlock has derided the proposed rescue as "a rush to judgment" that would benefit "high-flying financiers who chased big profits through reckless investments," and as "a complete waste of $700 billion."

"A number of people emailed me to say this was the first time that they"ve written, faxed or phoned their member of Congress," said Mr. Shedlock, a 55-year-old resident of Prairie Grove, Ill. "Were going to phone and fax every member of Congress who voted against this to thank them. ... Everyone who voted to pass this bill, we"re going to actively organize to oust them."

....
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Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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WATCH: Scarborough On Colbert: "It"s Too Late" For McCain

Joe Scarborough appeared on "The Colbert Report" Wednesday night and told Stephen Colbert it is "too late" for John McCain to win the presidential election.
"If it"s about the economy, John McCain loses," he said.
Scarborough also discussed his conversion from Bush cheerleader to Republican naysayer (turning point: Hurricane Katrina) and joked about the coverage cable news gives to William Ayers. LinkHere

FINANCIAL TIMES: Buffett could quit Constellation battle

By Peggy Hollinger in Paris

Published: December 17 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 17 2008 02:00

Warren Buffett, the US billionaire investor, could bow out of the battle for Constellation Energy after his MidAmerican Energy utility group said it would not try to outbid EDF of France.

Constellation"s directors were due to meet yesterday to decide whether to accept a $4.5bn offer from EDF for 50 per cent of its nuclear power generation business or go with a rival lowball $4.7bn offer from MidAmerican for the whole group.

EDF sent its formal offer around midnight on Monday after a week of talks over the details of the French company"s offer. EDF sources said they were expecting a response after the Constellation board meeting.

The EDF board met all day on Monday and is scheduled to meet again today at which it will discuss any response should one be forthcoming. It will also discuss other issues including next week"s deadline for European Commission approval of EDF"s acquisition of British Energy.

EDF offered $4.5bn for 50 per cent of Constellation"s five reactor facilities and up to a further $2bn for other non-nuclear assets on December 3, in an effort to secure its strategic position in the US with its chosen partner.

The French group owns 9.5 per cent of Constellation after creating a joint venture to build four of its new-generation EPR reactors on the US company"s sites.

Constellation was meant to become EDF"s platform to tap into the expected US nuclear revival, with a large proportion of the country"s 104 reactors coming up for renewal.

However, this strategy was thrown into doubt when Constellation fell victim to the turmoil created by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September. The exposure of the group"s energy trading arm sparked serious liquidity concerns and Constellation was forced to accept a rescue bid from Mr Buffett at the 11th hour to avoid breaching bank covenants and bankruptcy. Mr Buffett offered an immediate $1bn cash injection and $4.7bn for the group in a cleverly structured deal that will leave him with a profit of up to $600m should EDF win the bidding.

As of yesterday afternoon, that seemed the most likely outcome, though people close to EDF said nothing was certain until the Constellation board made its recommendation.

David Sokol, MidAmerican chairman, told CNBC television that his group would not counterbid.

"The structure of the transaction [proposed by EDF] is not one we would be comfortable with," he said.


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Confusing Headline of the Day


Bloomberg is currently running the following headline on its front page:

"Detectives Find Chickens in Hunt for $63 Billion in Lost Diapers, Bleach"
Maybe I"ve had too much coffee, but this seems a little confusing.

Congress not listening to Americans

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

HuffPost Reporter Sam Stein: Lot Of People "Kicking Themselves" For Being Nice To Lieberman

HuffPost reporter Sam Stein was a guest on The Ed Show tonight to discuss the latest news about health care reform, including Senator Joe Lieberman"s announcement that he would join a GOP filibuster to torpedo a reform bill that includes a public option.

Host Ed Schultz asked Stein what Lieberman wants out of all this. Stein replied,

Relevancy? I mean that would be the first start. You know this was sort of bound to happen; you could sense it coming up. Once Harry Reid went with the opt-out provision we knew that there were 57 senators roughly who would support it, and we were waiting to see who the other three were. Lieberman was the first out of the gate and I think what he"s done is essentially put himself in a position where he can make demands. It"s what you do when you"re someone who sits on the fence. You"re gonna move the legislation in a direction that he wants.
Schultz noted that since Lieberman has been on the record for awhile now against any kind of government run plan, why is he just not a Republican. Stein said there is an argument to be made that when Lieberman was welcomed back into the party it was understood that he would be a more reliable vote than he has been, but that has not been the case: "I think a lot of people are sort of kicking themselves when they look back at the rationale for letting him retain his committee chairmanship. It doesn"t really make much sense now."
LinkHere

Hedge Fund Looking To Buy Blackwater

Exclusive: Hedge Fund in Talks to Buy Blackwater
Private Equity Firm Could Invest At Least $200 Million Into Controversial Security Firm

By MADDY SAUER
April 30, 2008
The hedge fund giant that owns a controlling stake in Chrysler is in negotiations to buy the controversial security firm Blackwater USA, which has millions of dollars in U.S. government contracts in Iraq, according to sources familiar with the talks.
Cerberus Capital Management could invest $200 million for a stake in Blackwater, said a source close to the negotiations. Other sources said auditors from Cerberus had been examining Blackwater"s books since the beginning of the year.
A source close to the negotiations says there is no deal yet, but there might be one in the future and that negotiations about a possible investment into Blackwater are ongoing.
A Cerberus spokesman said the company doesn"t comment on market rumorsor speculation. Blackwater did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Blackwater "Blood Money" Angers Iraqis
Two Iraqi Families of Victims Killed by Blackwater Guards Tell ABC News They"ve Refused Compensation From the Company

America the Illiterate

By Chris Hedges

We live in two Americas. One America, now the minority, functions in a print-based, literate world. It can cope with complexity and has the intellectual tools to separate illusion from truth. The other America, which constitutes the majority, exists in a non-reality-based belief system. This America, dependent on skillfully manipulated images for information, has severed itself from the literate, print-based culture. It cannot differentiate between lies and truth. It is informed by simplistic, childish narratives and clich�s.
LinkHere

Congresswoman Kaptur: There Has Been a Financial Coup D"Etat


In Michael Moore"s new film Capitalism: A Love Story, Congresswoman Kaptur says there has been a financial coup d"etat, and that Wall Street - rather than Congress - is in charge.

In a must-watch interview with Bill Moyers broadcast Friday night, Kaptur also said:

  • The Federal Housing Agency used to insure 1 in 50 mortgages. But FHA now insures 1 in 4 mortgages, as the debt for bad mortgages has been dumped on the American people
  • "Banks have the power to create money". This again confirms and verifies that banks create money out of thin air, not based on the amount of reserve deposits on hand. See this and this
  • While - on paper - there are reserve requirements, banks have gone from 10 to 1 leverage (where they could lend out 10 times their reserves) to - in the case of JP Morgan - 100 to 1 leverage. But with derivatives, leverage might be much higher
  • Instead of holding hearings on the core problems with the financial system, Congress is holding hearings solely on arcane, peripheral issues

STABLEBOY SELECTIONS: Western Insurance Securities: Young Warren Buffett

In 2005, a group of students from the University of Kansas met with Warren Buffett. Their first question was whether he would still be able to earn investment returns of 50% annually. Buffett responded:

�Yes, I would still say the same thing today. In fact, we are still earning those types of returns on some of our smaller investments. The best decade was the 1950s; I was earning 50% plus returns with small amounts of capital. I could do the same thing today with smaller amounts. It would perhaps even be easier to make that much money in today�s environment because information is easier to access.

�You have to turn over a lot of rocks to find those little anomalies. You have to find the companies that are off the map - way off the map. You may find local companies that have nothing wrong with them at all. A company that I found, Western Insurance Securities, was trading for $3/share when it was earning $20/share! I tried to buy up as much of it as possible. No one will tell you about these businesses. You have to find them.�

Recently I was lucky enough to find an old article Buffett wrote about Western:

western-insurance-securities.jpg

Again my favorite security is the equity stock of a young, rapidly growing and ably managed insurance company. Although Government Employees Insurance Co., my selection of 15 months ago, has had a price rise of more than 100%, it still appears very attractive as a vehicle for long-term capital growth.

Rarely is an investor offered the opportunity to participate in the growth of two excellently managed and expanding insurance companies on the grossly undervalued basis which appears possible in the case of the Western Insurance Securities Company. The two operating subsidiaries, Western Casualty & Surety and Western Fire, wrote a premium volume of $26,009,929 in 1952 on consolidated admitted assets of S29,590,142. Now licensed in 38 states, their impressive growth record, both absolutely and relative to the industry, is summarized in Table I below.

Western Insurance Securities owns 92% of Western Casualty and Surety, which in turn owns 99.95% of Western Fire Insurance. Other assets of Western Insurance Securities are minor, consisting of approximately $180,000 in net quick assets. The capitalization consists of 7,000 shares of $100 par 6% preferred, callable at $125; 35,000 shares of Class A preferred, callable at $60, which is entitled to a $2.50 regular dividend and participates further up to a maximum total of $4 per share; and 50,000 shares of common stock. The arrears on the Class A presently amount to $36.75.

The management headed by Ray DuBoc is of the highest grade. Mr. DuBoc has ably steered the company since its inception in 1924 and has a reputation in the insurance industry of being a man of outstanding integrity and ability. The second tier of executives is also of top caliber. During the formative years of the company, senior charges were out of line with the earning power of the enterprise. The reader can clearly perceive why the same senior charges that caused such great difficulty when premium volume ranged about the $3,000,000 mark would cause little trouble upon the attainment of premium volume in excess of $26,000,000.

Adjusting for only 25% of the increase in the unearned premium reserve, earnings of $1,367,063 in 1952, a very depressed year for auto insurers, were sufficient to cover total senior charges of $129,500 more than 10 times over, leaving earnings of $24.74 on each share of common stock.

It is quite evident that the common stock has finally arrived, although investors do not appear to realize it since the stock is quoted at less than twice earnings and at a discount of approximately 55% from the December 31, 1952 book value of $86.26 per share. Table II indicates the postwar record of earnings and dramatically illustrates the benefits being realized by the common stock because of the expanded earnings base. The book value is calculated with allowance for a 25% equity in the unearned premium reserve and is after allowance for call price plus arrears on the preferreds.

Since Western has achieved such an excellent record in increasing its industry share of premium volume, the reader may well wonder whether standards have been compromised. This is definitely not the case. During the past ten years Western�s operating ratios have proved quite superior to the average multiple line company. The combined loss and expense ratios for the two Western companies as reported by the Alfred M. Best Co. on a case basis are compared in Table III with similar ratios for all stock fire and casualty companies.

The careful reader will not overlook the possibility that Western�s superior performance has been due to a concentration of writings in unusually profitable lines. Actually the reverse is true. Although represented in all major lines, Western is still primarily an automobile insurer with 60% of its volume derived from auto lines. Since automobile underwriting has proven generally unsatisfactory in the postwar period, and particularly so in the last three years, Western�s experience was even more favorable relative to the industry than the tabular comparison would indicate.

Western has always maintained ample loss reserves on unsettled claims. Underwriting results in the postwar period have shown Western to be over-reserved at the end of each year. Triennial examinations conducted by the insurance commissioners have confirmed these findings.

Turning to their investment picture, we of course find a growth in invested assets and investment income paralleling the growth in premium volume. Consolidated net assets have risen from $5,154,367 in 1940 to their present level of $29,590,142. Western follows an extremely conservative investment policy, relying upon growth in premium volume for expansion in investment income. Of the year-end portfolio of $21,889,243, governments plus a list of well diversified high quality municipals total $20,141,246 or 92% and stocks only $1,747,997 or 8%. Net investment income of $474,472 in 1952 was equal to $6.14 per share of Western Insurance common after minority interest and assuming senior charges were covered entirely from investment income.

The casualty insurance industry during the past several years has suffered staggering losses on automobile insurance lines. This trend was sharply reversed during late 1952. Substantial rate increases in 1951 and 1952 are being brought to bear on underwriting results with increasing force as policies are renewed at much higher premiums. Earnings within the casualty industry are expected to be on a very satisfactory basis in 1953 and 1954.

Western, while operating very profitably during the entire trying period, may be expected to report increased earnings as a result of expanding premium volume, increased assets, and the higher rate structure. An earned premium volume of $30,000,000 may be conservatively expected by 1954. Normal earning power on this volume should average about $30.00 per share, with investment income contributing approximately $8.40 per share after deducting all senior charges from investment income.

The patient investor in Western Insurance common can be reasonably assured of a tangible acknowledgement of his enormously strengthened equity position. It is well to bear in mind that the operating companies have expanded premium volume some 550% in the last 12 years. This has required an increase in surplus of 350% and consequently restricted the payment of dividends. Recent dividend increases by Western Casualty should pave the way for more prompt payment on arrearages. Any leveling off of premium volume will permit more liberal dividends while a continuation of the past rate of increase, which in my opinion is very unlikely, would of course make for much greater earnings.

Operating in a stable industry with an excellent record of growth and profitability, I believe Western Insurance common to be an outstanding vehicle for substantial capital appreciation at its present price of about 40. The stock is traded over-the-counter.


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REFOCUSING THE TERROR FIGHT

President Barack Obama vigorously defended his plans to close the Guantanamo prison camp on Thursday and promised to work with Congress to develop a system for imprisoning detainees who can"t be tried and can"t be turned loose.
Obama conceded that some would end up in U.S. prisons and insisted those facilities were tough enough to house even the most dangerous inmates.
The president spoke one day after the Senate voted resoundingly to deny him money to close the prison in Cuba, but Obama said he was still determined. And he decried arguments used against his plans.
"We will be ill-served by the fearmongering that emerges whenever we discuss this issue," he declared.
"There are no neat or easy answers here," Obama said in a speech in which he pledged anew to "clean up the mess at Guantanamo." Speaking at the National Archives, Obama said he wouldn"t do anything to endanger the American people.
He noted that roughly 500 detainees already have been released by the Bush administration. There are 240 at Guantanamo now.
Obama said opening and continuing the military prison "set back the moral authority that is America"s strongest currency in the world." LinkHere

Refreshingly Simple Commercial Real Estate Implosion

Portfolio.com is writing about Wall Street"s Next Crisis.
Now that the subprime shakeout is nearly over, another real estate mess looms, this time in commercial property.
My Comment: This article is off to a rocky start. The subprime blowup is well underway but by no means over. Two more waves of Alt-A and Pay-Option-Arms are coming up and those waves are now approaching shore. The Pay-Option-Arms problem could be worse because it will saddle lenders with hugely underwater properties.
In their own way, however, commercial-real-estate loans were no less foolish than those made to home buyers with speckled credit. And as with the subprime mess, the reckoning will come.
My Comment: Much better. I agree with both statements.
The implosion is going to be a refreshingly simple and familiar story. The commercial-real-estate frenzy has none of the nagging complications found in the residential market. There aren"t any targets of predatory lending. There are no huge failures by government regulators. The aftermath won"t see people thrown out of their homes�an unadulterated societal ill regardless of whether they should have known better or were tricked into taking on loans they couldn"t afford.
My Comment: Once again I whole heartily agree. But ironically enough "refreshingly simple" adds its own complexities in that there will be no options to deal with it. Unlike residential housing where there are numerous plans to keep homeowners in their homes they will all fail. See Paulson"s Plan Is Nothing But Lip Service for more on this idea.

On the other hand, with commercial real estate there will not be lawsuits, bailout plans, lip service, or any other of complexities. When store owners can no longer afford the rents they will go bankrupt and break leases. When property owners can no longer make mortgage payments to banks they in turn will go bankrupt and banks will end up owning buildings.

In this "refreshingly simple" world, Congress will not attempt to make lease payments for bankrupt businesses.
Let"s make it clear up front: The commercial-real-estate blowup�while ugly�won"t be as bad as the current housing crisis. It"s a smaller market, and any single property often has a diversified group of tenants with different sources of income. The supply of buildings didn"t increase dramatically over the past several years, as in residential real estate. And the losses won"t be as severe, because many commercial spaces can be refashioned for new occupants.
My Comment: This is a mixed bag but I think commercial real estate is as overbuilt as housing is. However, the total amount at risk is smaller. On the other hand, the amount at risk is likely to be more concentrated because the size of the deals are far greater. Those deals are in fewer hands. As for new occupants in a slumping area: forget about it.
Right now, there is about $730 billion in commercial-mortgage-backed securities outstanding. "Not only have we been in a rising tide, but the loans are very different in underwriting standards than even five or 10 years ago," says Alan Todd, head of commercial-mortgage-backed-securities research at J.P. Morgan. "We haven"t been through a cycle yet" with these new structures, he adds ominously.
My Comment: What"s been securitized is one thing, what banks are holding is another, and the concentration of risk is a third. Obviously there are lots of guesses here but a sure-fire prediction here is this is going to end ugly.
The perennial lesson to be drawn from the coming slump: You can"t protect greedy and myopic people from themselves. Everyone knew that the [commercial-real-estate] business is highly cyclical. Indeed, a huge downturn had occurred as recently as the early 1990s, within the memory of most of the professionals now in the market.
My comment: I certainly agree with that.
Amid the tall office spires of America"s cities, big-money pros have simply been playing a game of greater fool, trying to bring in huge returns with borrowed money and sell out before the arrival of the crash they knew was coming. And in this case, the fools won"t just be famous developers. Some of the same banks and Wall Street firms now entangled in the subprime residential crisis will also be caught in the mess. The commercial-real-estate meltdown will be a market failure, pure and simple. We will be able to look at the wreckage in the next several years with wonder and awe, untroubled this time by sympathy for those left holding the bag.
My Comment: It will be a failure alright, but it will not be a "market failure", at least not a "free market failure". The Greenspan Fed purposely and willingly created the housing bubble. Commercial real estate went along for the ride. Please see Missing the Boat on Monetary Easing for more on this idea.
Here"s what we know about what happened in commercial real estate: Lending standards fell, starkly. Or as I prefer to see it, they were thrown out of the 60th-floor window of that gleaming office tower in downtown Atlanta/Phoenix/New York/San Francisco/insert your city here. The gap between the cost of debt servicing and the cash actually being generated by the buildings narrowed. What"s more, it used to be that banks made loans for no more than 80 percent of the value of a property to ensure a healthy cushion of protection, but by the early part of 2007, loans were sometimes made for 120 percent of a property"s value. Who would be so crazy as to lend more than a property is worth? Anyone who believes in perpetual-motion machines�that is, that rents and underlying property values must always go up.
My Comment: "Who would be so crazy as to lend more than a property is worth?" That"s a good question but that is not the worst of it. Consider this simple fact: A 90% loan and a mere 10% decline wipes out all equity. My opinion is commercial real estate is going to plunge 20% or more easily.
A prime example is Tishman Speyer Properties, which paid a record price for two giant New York apartment complexes. To make the purchase work, the company must now figure out a way to kick out current tenants�many of whom have their rents stabilized by law�at a faster rate than has been managed in years past, in order to replace them with ones who will pay more. Historically, that turnover has been about 6 percent, says Todd, but Tishman Speyer is assuming a rate of more than double that for the first couple of years, and 10 percent for the next few after that.
My Comment: That is a �prime example� of how insane things got. And it is by no means an isolated event. Tishman Speyer Properties is in deep cereal trouble as is anyone who lent them money.
Harry Macklowe, a famed New York real estate buccaneer, leveraged himself to the gills to buy seven New York office buildings from E.O.P., a side agreement to the Blackstone purchase. He borrowed $7.6 billion, based on stratospheric valuations, while putting a minuscule $50 million of his own equity into the deal, financing much of the purchase with short-term debt. Since the summer, Macklowe has struggled to refinance the debt in increasingly choppy markets. And he has had to put up as collateral his trophy property, the General Motors Building in midtown Manhattan.
My Comment: Harry Macklowe made one greedy bet too many. He can look forward to losing his trophy property for that greed unless he takes appropriate measures immediately to prevent it.
Lending standards had been loosening across the industry for years. Standard & Poor"s and Moody"s both voiced early concerns in late 2004 and the beginning of 2005. Sure, "supply and demand is in balance, but that"s not a license to loan more money against a given cash flow," says Tad Philipp, Moody"s managing director of commercial-mortgage finance. "What we were seeing was riskier and riskier loans, and the loans got riskier still. And we are just past the top of the cycle."
My Comment: Spare me the sap. Exactly when did any of the rating agencies act on this?
Despite their misgivings, the ratings agencies kept slapping seals of approval on commercial-real-estate structures. Just as they did when rating securities containing residential mortgages, the agencies relied heavily on recent historical data, which were misleading.
My Comment: Bingo
To its credit, Moody"s started requiring higher levels of protection in the spring of 2007. S&P and Fitch, according to a J.P. Morgan analysis, lagged significantly�and won market share as a result. Those two will come to regret that they didn"t respond faster to the Moody"s move.
My Comment: Giving Moody"s any credit for this is ludicrous. The analogy is like praising a student for a D--- because someone else got an F. There is no credit to be given here, only greed and shame.

There is no question Fitch is the worst of the lot. As proof I offer Fitch Discloses Its Fatally Flawed Rating Model. Having said that, and with apologies offered to regular readers for repeating myself so often It"s Time To Break Up The Credit Rating Cartel.

Ask And Ye Shall Receive

Those bullish on commercial real estate may wish to consider this anecdotal evidence on the Downtown Sacramento Commercial Real Estate Photolog.
Mish and others requested more CRE photos, so who am I to deny them? The following is a random sampling of the glut in commercial real estate in downtown Sacramento. It is by no means comprehensive, but I think it does represent the glut fairly well.
Click on the above link to see some of the overbuilding in commercial real estate in Sacramento. For more on Southern California Real Estate you may also wish to consider An Elk Grove Commercial Real Estate Photolog.

Max keep those photologs coming. If California is any guide (and I think it is) your images show how refreshingly simple the commercial real estate implosion is going to be.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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McClellan: Bush "Secrectly Declassified" 2002 NIE On Iraq To Leak To Reporters

By Think Progress
During his "Today" show appearance this morning with host Meredith Viera, former press secretary Scott McClellan confirmed that President Bush himself had authorized the leak of the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq.

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MARKETWATCH: Buffett criticizes bank stress tests


By Alistair Barr
Last update: 3:42 p.m. EDT May 3, 2009

OMAHA, Nebraska (MarketWatch) -- Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)
Berkshire Hathaway Inc

BRKB 3,043.95, -21.05, -0.7%) Chairman Warren Buffett criticized the government"s stress tests of the nation"s largest banks, arguing during a Sunday press conference that the health of large lenders can"t be judged by calculating ratios and adjusting loss expectations on broad asset classes such as home equity loans and credit card loans. Berkshire owns large stakes in Wells Fargo & Co.

Wells and US Bancorp are involved in the stress tests, the results of which are scheduled to be released this week. Buffett said those three banks don"t need more equity. Wells Fargo has a dramatically different business model than the other largest banks in the U.S., he added. Marking down the value of broad types of assets like credit card loans based on different economic scenarios doesn"t work, Buffett explained. End of Story

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Spain Implodes, UK Home Slide Most Since Great Depression

Data from everywhere is pouring in at a fast pace. Almost all of it is horrid. Let"s start with a look at Europe where Spain pulls bond sale amid economic crisis.
The treasury pulled an expected sale of 15-year bonds after probing the market informally, saying it would wait until credit conditions began to calm down. "We are not facing financing problems. We placed a successful three-year note on Wednesday," said a spokesman.

Government officials have been shocked by the intensity of the downturn now engulfing the country. Car sales fell 31pc in June, industrial production has fallen 5.5pc over the past year and the collapsing property sector is shedding almost 100,000 jobs a month.

Miguel Sebastian, the industry minister, said the economy had ground to a halt in the second quarter and was now in "virtual recession".
Worst Slide Since Great Depression

In the UK the Slide in house prices is the worst since the Great Depression.
Britain is now in the midst of the worst housing slide since the Great Depression, economists declared after house price inflation dropped to the lowest level since comparable records began.

Figures from Halifax, the UK"s biggest mortgage lender, showed house prices have fallen by 8.7pc in the year to June, confirming that the property crunch is more severe than the last housing crash in the early 1990s.

House prices have never fallen by more than 10pc over a year in recorded history, except in 1931, when Britain left the gold standard.

The Bank of England reported recently that the number of mortgages being approved for housing purchases dropped to 42,000 in May - the lowest level since comparable records began in 1993 and down 64pc on the previous year.

Prof Goodhart, now at the London School of Economics, said: "Output is going to fall, unemployment is going to rise, possibly quite sharply. It"s a horrible situation. "The British economy is getting into quite a recession. I remember when the Queen had an "annus horribilis," and this is the annus horribilis for the MPC.
Bankers Want More Help

In a repeat of what is happening in the US, UK Bankers want more help from Bank of England.
Senior figures from the UK"s biggest banks will today lobby the Bank of England to widen the terms of the special funding scheme launched in April to bring liquidity back to the financial sector. The bankers will argue that the Special Liquidity Scheme (SLS) has not done enough to restore confidence among banks, leading to them to remain cautious about lending money to each other and to customers.

The Bank may also be resistant to widening the terms of the SLS. The Bank"s Governor, Mervyn King, has repeatedly warned of the "moral hazard" of financial institutions generating business without having proper concern about the risk of writing it at any price.
Britain Condemned For Flagrant Breach Of EU Spending Rules

The Telegraph is reporting Britain faces EU action over budget deficit.
European Union finance ministers have voted to condemn Britain for flagrant breach of the Maastricht spending rules, irked that the UK government has not even tried to keep its budget deficit below the treaty limit of 3pc of national income.

By its own admission, Labour will need to borrow at least 3.2pc of GDP this year, even if the economy holds up well. Brussels described this as "prima facie evidence of a planned excessive deficit". It warned that UK public finances were no longer on a sustainable course after the spending blitz of recent years.

Yesterday"s vote is the first time the EU has launched disciplinary action against a big Western state under the revamped Growth and Stability Pact. While France and Germany both violated the old pact, they did so at the bottom of the dotcom mini-slump.

Britain"s sins are more serious. The breach has occurred at the top of the cycle when tax revenues should be at their peak. Brussels said there had been a "deterioration of the structural balance of 4.5pc of GDP" since 1999. Brussels said Britain did not qualify under the "exceptional" circumstances clause.

The UK now has the worst fiscal profile of any developed country in the North Atlantic sphere.
UK Homebuilders Axe 40% Of Staff

The housing gloom is spreading as Bovis Homes and Redrow axe 40% of staff.
Bovis Homes and fellow housebuilder Redrow both said this morning that they plan to make 40pc of their staff redundant as the British public continues to put off buying new homes.

Bovis is cutting 400 jobs and this morning described the current market as "the worst backdrop the group has seen for many years", while 500 jobs will go at Redrow, which said that the pace of the downturn in the UK market was "unprecedented".

Bovis revealed the number of homes it sold in the first six months of the year fell by 32pc, and conceded that it was impossible to predict by how much house prices would fall.

Yesterday Persimmon, the UK"s largest housebuilder, said that it was laying off 1,100 people - 22pc of its workforce. Last week, Taylor Wimpey said that it was wiping �660m off the value of its land holdings, in recognition of the fact that it is worth a lot less now compared with this time last year.
US Foreclosures Rise 53%

On this side of the ocean, Foreclosures Rose 53% in June, Bank Seizures Tripled.
U.S. foreclosure filings increased 53 percent in June from a year earlier and bank seizures rose the most on record as deteriorating property values and higher rates on adjustable mortgages forced more people to give up their homes.

More than 252,000 properties, or one in 501 U.S. households, entered a stage of the foreclosure process, RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data, said today in a statement. Bank seizures rose 171 percent, the most since the Irvine, California-based company began tracking statistics on default notices, warnings of a scheduled auction and repossessions in January 2005.

"The foreclosure problem is getting worse and will stay with us well into the next decade," Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody"s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in an interview. "The job market is eroding and homeowners have less equity. Lenders are much less willing to work with you if you"ve got negative equity, and you"re more likely to give up your house if you"re deeply underwater."

Foreclosure activity is the highest since the Great Depression of the 1930s, said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac"s vice president of marketing. Home prices, which fell the most on record in April, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 U.S. metropolitan areas, have created a cycle where shrinking equity drives homeowners into foreclosure, which in turn further pushes down home prices, Sharga said.

"We"ll have 1 million bank-owned properties by the end of the year," Sharga said in an interview. "That will represent between one-fourth and one-third of all home sales."
There are only two words that can describe what is happening and both begin with a "D".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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